Business for New Europe analyses the various possible results in the least predictable British general election for a generation, and what they mean for Britain's future in Europe.
By Will Cousins
Britain goes to the polls today in the least predictable general election for generations. Barring any last-minute surprises, we are likely to be heading for another hung parliament, leaving the main parties to attempt a minority government or to cut deals or informal arrangements with smaller parties. But what do these myriad possibilities mean for Britain’s EU membership? How likely is an EU referendum?
In this blog, we analyse all the different permutations of parties which could emerge once the results are in, their likelihood, and the implications of each for Britain’s place in Europe.
CURRENT POLL OF POLLS: Conservatives 33.6%, Labour 33.4%, Ukip 13.1%, Liberal Democrats 9.1%, Green 4.6%
CURRENT SEAT PROJECTION: Conservative 273, Labour 268, SNP 56, Liberal Democrat 28, Plaid Cymru 3, Ukip 2, Green 1, Others 19 (according to May2015.com)
So what are the options?
Conservative majority government
Odds: 9/1
Likelihood of referendum: 10/10
David Cameron has pledged to include an EU Referendum Bill in his first Queen’s Speech, due on 27 May. This would legislate for an in/out EU referendum by the end of 2017. In the intervening period, the Conservatives pledge to “renegotiate” Britain’s place in the EU, and recommend the country support that altered form of membership in the referendum. However, with the opinion polls showing the Conservatives having only a very slim lead over Labour, far below the seven-point lead they would need for a majority, this outcome is extremely unlikely.
Labour majority government
Odds: 50/1
Likelihood of referendum: 1/10
Labour rejects the Conservative position of “renegotiation followed by referendum,” with the party instead focusing on reform of the EU without the threat of a Brexit. However, Labour do support an in/out referendum in the case that more powers are transferred to Brussels. This makes a referendum very unlikely – but not impossible. Some commentators speculated that a new treaty will come once the French and German elections in 2017 are out of the way. Since a Labour majority government would probably last until 2020, it could find itself negotiating a new treaty, and then find itself in the position of holding a referendum, or breaking a manifesto promise. However, given Labour’s position in the polls, and its expected meltdown in Scotland, a majority seems all but impossible.
Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Odds: 9/4
Likelihood of referendum: 8/10
The Liberal Democrats are Britain’s most pro-European party, which led most to assume that they could never support the Conservative’s policy on a referendum. However, Nick Clegg has repeatedly refused to rule out doing a deal on a referendum – in return, some commentators suggest, for scaling back planned Conservative cuts to the welfare budget. David Cameron will be unable to form a new coalition without a commitment to a referendum. If Clegg can get his party to agree, there will be a referendum by the end of 2017, so long as the Bill gets through the Commons and the Lords. There would also be likely concessions on the details of the referendum, such as who negotiates which reforms, the franchise and conditions of any campaign. Many pundits believe this outcome to be one of the most likely.
Conservative-Liberal Democrat minority coalition
Odds: 12/1
Likelihood of referendum: 7/10
If the Conservatives and Lib Dems together come close to a majority, a new coalition would require support from the minor parties. The most important Tory ally in this scenario would be Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which is forecast to win eight or nine MPs and is fully behind a referendum. Ukip are unlikely to win more than three seats, but they would of course vote for a Referendum Bill – albeit after trying to extract some concessions on detail. If the coalition+DUP+Ukip still lacked a majority, passing a Referendum Bill would be difficult indeed, as the small, left-wing parties are opposed to a referendum. The Liberal Democrats would push back hard against a referendum in this scenario, as they would not want to see the government fall apart over one issue. This outcome is very possible.
Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
Odds: 8/1
Likelihood of referendum: 1/10
See Labour majority government. Both Labour and the Lib Dems are opposed to a 2017 referendum to an arbitrary timeline; both believe in gradual reform rather than renegotiation; but both are pledged to deliver a referendum in the case of a new transfer of powers from London to Brussels. Whilst most pundits do not believe Labour will have the numbers to form a majority coalition, this outcome is certainly possible. The unknown unknown here is whether the EU would be forced to change the treaties by 2020 owing to further problems in the Eurozone, resulting in a transfer of powers and therefore a UK referendum.
Conservative minority government
Odds: 5/1
Likelihood of referendum: 7/10
Under this scenario, the Conservatives would be the largest party, and be unwilling or unable to form a coalition with the Lib Dems, but Labour and the SNP would not have the numbers to vote the Tories out. In this circumstance, a referendum would be top of the Conservatives’ agenda – but whether they could get a Referendum Bill through the Houses of Commons and Lords would be far from certain. The DUP support a referendum. Ukip are not expected to get more than three MPs, but they could be important at the margins, and would of course agitate for a referendum as quickly as possible.
However, the Scottish Nationalists and the other small left-wing parties are opposed, and the Liberal Democrats would be much less likely to agree to a referendum in opposition than they would be in government. In the end, it would all depend on how close the Tories got to a majority, and which parties they would depend on to get votes through parliament. This outcome is quite possible, if a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition would lack a majority, or if either the Tory or Lib Dem grass roots blocked their leaders from entering into coalition.
Labour minority government (with confidence and supply from SNP and possibly others)
Odds: 7/4
Likelihood of a referendum: 1/10
Broadly, if Labour+SNP+other small leftist parties=greater than Conservatives+Lib Dems+DUP, Labour will form a minority government with the consent of the Scottish National Party. The SNP, along with Plaid Cymru and the SDLP, are opposed to a referendum. The Liberal Democrats would also be key players in this scenario, and would be happy to support Labour’s anti-referendum policy. However, the scenario of Labour having to hold a referendum due to treaty change cannot be ruled out. In the event that he did, the SNP, Plaid and the SDLP would enjoy influence over the rules. It is probable that these parties would seek to introduce a “quadruple lock,” whereby Brexit would only be valid if majorities in all four nations of the United Kingdom voted for it. Polling in Scotland suggests that this is virtually impossible. If Ed Miliband is going to become Prime Minister, this is the most likely way in which he would do it.
All odds from Paddy Power